In business, we have to make choices today about what we believe will happen tomorrow. Too often, we revert to making narrow predictions. When the future fails to unfold according to our prediction, our predisposition tends to be to alter our perceptions to fit our belief rather than amend our belief to fit the available evidence.
Forecasting is nothing more (nor less) than the systematic and disciplined application of common sense. —Paul Saffo
A model is simply a representation of our understanding of cause and effect. Models help us uncover possibilities and expand the realm of choice. By acknowledging that there is a range of possible futures, we are better prepared to make good decisions today.
