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All models are wrong—many are useful.

  • Formal models help make our assumptions explicit and, consequently, testable.
  • The act of modeling sharpens our intuition by clarifying our assumptions regarding cause and effect.
  • Testing the boundaries of our models helps us understand the conditions under which a strategy can work—and when it won’t.

In other words, formal business models can help us learn, explore, and communicate—even when prediction isn’t plausible.